AI versus Marshy - The Hype Adoption Curve

I’ve been talking about the tectonic shift in AI in this newsletter, and one concept that’s been on my mind is the Hype Adoption Curve. This curve, first introduced by Geoffrey Moore in his book ‘Crossing the Chasm’, explains how new technologies go through a cycle of hype, early adoption, and then either mainstream success or obscurity. Let’s dive into what this means for AI right now. The most breakthrough game changing technologies are able to push past the drop off, and enjoy mainstream adoption. Most fall short and fade into obscurity. I suspect virtual reality as we see it today will be one of those. AI is going through this process right now. Its enjoyed unprecedented hype as ChatGPT demonstrated it is possible to offer narrow artificial intelligence in a way that us day-to-day humans can understand. We’re now all wading in the trough of disillusionment - and looking through the article with this lens (along with many other savage takes on what’s happening) - tells us that what’s happening is business as usual (BAU). There are a lots of challenges in the way in order to get AI right. These challenges will be solved clever cookies far smarter than this writer. I think what’s different with this technology is that its sitting on an exponential improvement curve. As first seen in your welcome email. Even if AI completely blows up in a bad way over the next 3-5 years - the exponential rate of improvement it’s flying at means the world we live in is going to be very different by the time most of our lives finish. Tool of the week: Figma Jambot It works pretty well if you’re a Figma / Figjam user! If you’re a knowledge worker - you would have likely seen Miro / Mural at some stage and the virtual version of post-it notes. I have facilitated workshops with actual post-it notes, and the virtual approach has it merits. Figjam came a bit later and made the virtual process even easier with less lag and clunky interfaces. Well now that same team have come up with Figma Jambot. Originally appeared in newsletter : AI versus Marshy #11: hype curves, individual brainstorming, + bad hustle